Uncertainty Abounds…
March 21, 2026
I wasn’t sure if I was going to produce something to share this week. Not that there aren’t a sufficient number of events and concerns to comment on. It is just that I find myself on the other side of the world in Perth, having accompanied my wife Amy on a business trip… yes, the proverbial ‘plus one’. I mention this not to boast about my good fortune (though I allow that it is considerable) but rather for what follows.
Getting around Perth, I have used the services of Uber. In every instance but one, upon ascertaining I was from the US, the conversation turned to Trump, questioning how we could have elected him in the first place and commenting how his latest gambit was negatively impacting their lives already from substantial increases in the price of gas. After four straight weeks of market declines, US equity investors can relate, the damage to their portfolios is visible and real. The mood is increasingly gloomy, the future murky at best.
Let’s modify that perspective a bit. Yes, all the major averages are in, or close to, correction territory (a decline of 10% or more from a recent peak). However, year to date, none of the major averages are down even 7%; the damage feels worse because January was a strong month. After three double-digit positive years, if we ended the year down something less than 7%, it would not be pleasing yet hardly disastrous.
As for market corrections, they happen every one to two years. We had one in 2025 as well. This time, the situation was not exactly dire at all prior to the beginning of hostilities. In a recent note, a colleague wrote: ‘global economic conditions, especially in the US, Europe and Japan, remain quite strong.’ That economic strength could return. If Trump can manage to disengage somehow soon and the war winds down, energy flows are normalized, and all energy related prices and costs moderate, it is still possible that the markets will recover.
The chances of that happening, however, appear to be declining as Iran exhibits intransigence, Trump flails publicly, and Israel has its own agenda that is not necessarily congruent with ours. In the long run, obviously, this resolves…yet that is small comfort at the moment. If it takes much longer before hostilities cease, there will be a significant economic impact on everyone. The US will not be immune, the markets will decline further. And it could easily lead to other uncomfortable discussions about the size of the federal deficit, the unclear and still unknowable impact of AI, even the hegemony of the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Whew…in a few paragraphs we’ve gone from things aren’t as bad as they seem to a rather gloomy take on what the future could hold. If you feel uncertain, join the club…there is a great deal of uncertainty about. Patience is important. Value can still be found in the shares of strong performing, growing, dividend paying companies. Don’t be afraid to hold a larger amount in money market funds, you are still getting over 3.5% while you wait for more clarity and stability.