All is not Doom in the Gloom...

March 8, 2026

I feel like there is a pall over our lives right now. The difficulties I am having finding useful, productive insights as an investment advisor seem a little beside the point against the backdrop of an active, hot war. Financial matters seem a little trivial. Consequently, I will be brief this time… and a day late.

The markets have declined in the past few days… absent a sudden cessation of hostilities, that decline is likely to continue. At the start of 2026 the market was fully valued - many even said overvalued. A decline was not surprising, now being extended and exacerbated by the war.

There aren’t really any great places to hide with your capital as the decline continues. Gold, a classic safe haven in times of geopolitical upheaval, has risen over 150% in two years (in the previous 8 years it only rose a total of 33%)... buying gold at these prices I believe offers more downside risk than security… and, of course, no dividends. Bitcoin, touted by many in the crypto world as ‘digital gold’, peaked at slightly more than $124K just six months ago; today it trades for $67K. Hardly a haven. And US Treasuries, often an investor destination in a ‘flight to safety’ during crises, saw interest rates climb, taking prices down… not the typical response.

And yet, it is a market of stocks, not just ‘the stock market.’ As one analyst put it – ‘when the missiles are flying, it’s time to be buying’. The economy is still growing. When there are crises, investors get nervous, volatility climbs, and knee jerk exaggerated declines in particular stocks offer opportunities to add to positions. A small miss in earnings, conservative forward guidance the market didn’t like, and the stock drops 20% - that’s your chance.

Geopolitical issues rarely inflict lasting damage to the markets…if the situation in Iran gets resolved reasonably soon, the markets will recover. And that seems a more likely outcome than a war that drags on for years. If however, against most expressed expectations, there is no resolution forthcoming in weeks and things drag on, the negative impact on the economy will grow. The price of oil will continue to rise - it is already up over 50% since the start of the conflict just days ago - and there will be meaningful economic disruption. Then it will be simply a question of when, not if, the administration will modify their currently expressed goal of 'complete surrender.'