The markets have continued to surprise to the upside, repeatedly setting new records despite all the headwinds from rising interest rates, surging oil prices, and the stalemate with Iran. I am faced with the conundrum of not wanting to repeat myself, yet I feel that the previous cautions and advice still pertain. I will be brief on the markets today and then move on to something related arising from all the market euphoria…

When the markets are mostly higher, as they have been for the last three plus years, I find myself often recommending caution. Yes, Lava Wealth clients have higher cash and money market positions than usual, but they remain mostly invested. Most market analysts are predicting that the market will continue to rise through year end. Still, I feel the need to point out, again, that a rising market creates its own momentum, generating investor overconfidence and complacency when more caution is warranted. Please stay nimble…

If I were to begin this note by saying I am speechless, I can hear all the wags out there – Richard Newman speechless? That’s a surprise. And that would line up perfectly with what happened in the markets this week because it was very surprising. Despite the ongoing war, surging energy prices, naval blockades, actual fighting in Lebanon, and imminent shortages of critical materials (jet fuels, fertilizer, helium, aluminum ) the markets surged higher. I felt completely crossed up…

The markets closed yesterday for Good Friday. Without the distractions of market activity, it would seem to be a good time to think about the investment landscape, possibly gain some useful insights. That, however, is a lot of wishful thinking. Getting meaningful insights at the moment would require interpreting the puzzling, and often contradictory, statements from Trump and his team and the current state of the war…

I wasn’t sure if I was going to produce something to share this week. Not that there aren’t a sufficient number of events and concerns to comment on. It is just that I find myself on the other side of the world in Perth, having accompanied my wife Amy on a business trip… yes, the proverbial ‘plus one’. I mention this not to boast about my good fortune (though I allow that it is considerable) but rather for what follows…

I feel like there is a pall over our lives right now. The difficulties I am having finding useful, productive insights as an investment advisor seem a little beside the point against the backdrop of an active, hot war. Financial matters seem a little trivial. Consequently, I will be brief this time…