Is there more turmoil in the world than usual…or are we just better, and more rapidly, informed about everything, everywhere? The planet doesn’t give off the feeling of being a happy place; the mood in this country is further evidence of that. Conflicts, both violent ones and the merely political, continue to pop up all over the globe. This week, we added a domestic political assassination to the mix. And yet, through it all, the markets have maintained a positive aspect and in the last couple of weeks have settled out repeatedly at new, all-time record highs. It frankly feels a little unreal to me though I feel like an outlier having this viewpoint…

Not that long ago I was struck by a subtle change that a large investment management firm made in their advertising message to potential clients, highlighting a concern that is frequently overlooked - the risk of being too conservative. It is an error that is easily, and unfortunately, often made by investors….

The recent activity in the financial markets all seems so familiar - the market making new highs, sentiment  very bullish, optimistic predictions that the market will finish the year even higher than it is today are widespread. I apologize if this will seem somewhat repetitive - it is just that I’ve seen this movie recently, was just on this crowded boat. After all the gains of the past 30 months, I cannot get myself comfortable assuming that all projections that it will continue will actually come to pass…

Near the end of the last millennium (that's only 25 years ago), stock equity holdings overcame real estate as the largest asset for households. The market’s climb since then has only increased the gap and cemented the situation. Unsurprisingly, that has resulted in increased public attention to market activity, a variety of new investment options and, yes it must be said, even gambling of a sort (e.g. zero-day options which expire on the same day they are purchased). It isn’t your grandmother’s market anymore…

Bears make money, bulls make money, pigs get slaughtered – that’s an investment bromide that is worth remembering these days as the stock market continues its climb. Several of the markets’ most watched indices have reached record, all-time highs. This kind of market action, and also when the market drops precipitously, stirs emotions in investors and investment advisors alike. It becomes difficult to sidestep the gloom or, in this case, the euphoria. Last month, most analysts and pundits cited a variety of data points to explain why, though there might even be a modest pullback in the 3rd quarter, historical precedents pointed to the markets finishing the year even higher than the current record levels. Hesitations are only very occasionally encountered these days…

The S&P 500 finished the first half of 2025 up just 5%, NASDAQ the same, the Dow a little less…the Russell 2000 saw a modest decline. On average, equity markets have risen 9-10% annually so 5% for half a year seems right in line…and yet, it was hardly slow steady progress to that gain. After rising slightly at the start of the year, the equity markets began drifting steadily lower and then plunged in reaction to Trump’s ‘liberation day’ proclamation of much higher than expected tariffs. Down 20% in just a few months. Then surprisingly recovering completely as the TACO (Trump Always Chickens Out on the draconian tariff proposals) notion spread, eventually rising over 30% from its early April low. A gradual 5% increase? Hardly. It was nervewracking for all, even the professionals….